Canadian CSL - Fixture Analysis 21/22 June

[Muserfish]

21/06/2008 02.00 CET - Portugal FC v Toronto Croatia

Form : L-W-W-W v L-W-W-D
Last Home Gms : W-W v L-W : Last Away Gms
H2H : 0 2 3 : (2 draws obviously)

true % Chances : 28.34% - 40.00% - 31.65%
True odds : 3.53 - 2.50 - 3.16 : Overall stat guideline
First company out : 1.95 - 3.15 - 3.30




21/06/2008 02.00 CET - Serbian White Eagles v St.Catherines Wolves

Form : D-W-L-L-W-L v W-D-L-L
Last Home Gms : W-L-L v W-D-L : Last Away Gms
H2H : 0 2 3

true % Chances : 36.25% - 17.50% - 46.25%
True odds : 2.76 - 5.71 - 2.16 : Overall stat guideline
First company out : 2.15 - 3.15 - 2.85




21/06/2008 02.45 CET - London City v Brampton Lions

Form : L-L-L-L-L v L-W-W-L-W
Last Home Gms : L-L-L v L-L : Last Away Gms
H2H : 0 0 2

true % Chances : 20.00% - 25.00% - 55.00%
True odds : 5.00 - 4.00 - 1.82 : Overall stat guideline
First company out : 6.60 - 3.80 - 1.37




21/06/2008 22.00 CET - Trois Rivieres Attak v TFC Accademy

Form : L-D-W-W-D-D v W-L-W-L-L-L-W
Last Home Gms : D v W-L-L : Last Away Gms
H2H : 0 0 2

true % Chances : 61.91% - 21.43% - 16.67%
True odds : 1.62 - 4.67 - 1.82 : Overall stat guideline
First company out : 1.75 - 3.20 - 4.00




22/06/2008 01.00 CET - Windsor Border Stars v Brampton Lions

Form : L-W-L-L-L-W v L-W-W-L-W
Last Home Gms : W-L-W v L-L : Last Away Gms
H2H : 0 1 2

true % Chances : 27.50% - 32.50% - 40.00%
True odds : 3.64 - 3.08 - 2.50 : Overall stat guideline
First company out : 1.90 - 3.25 - 3.35



22/06/2008 21.00 CET - North York v London City

Form : L-L-W-W-L-D v L-L-L-L-L
Last Home Gms : L-W-W-D v L-L : Last Away Gms
H2H : 1 0 1

true % Chances : 72.22% - 5.56% - 22.22%
True odds : 1.38 - 18.00 - 4.50 : Overall stat guideline
First company out : 1.30 - 4.00 - 9.00



22/06/2008 21.00 CET - St.Catherines v Toronto Croatia

Form : W-D-L-L v L-W-W-W-D
Last Home Gms : L v L-W : Last Away Gms
H2H : 0 0 3

true % Chances : 33.34% - 45.00% - 21.67%
True odds : 3.00 - 2.22 - 4.62 : Overall stat guideline
First company out : 2.00 - 3.15 - 3.15NB : All true odds and percentages are taken straight away from statistics (which afterall they never lie), though final bookie odds can vary due to many factors such as line-up and god knows what else.

:money8:

 

[Muserfish]

LOL forgot tht mainly its US citizens so keep calm .. bodog is offering this league as well. just in case you cant have an account with Euro bookies.

 

[wilheim]

Muserfish

Welcome to The Rx.com I hope you enjoy the site and become a regular contributer. Please do not promote or use links to other websites.



Best of luck, wiheim

 

[rolltide]

I have absolutely no clue what this thread is about unless you think that past performance of 3-4 games should be the catalyst for how a bookie makes their odds. may be in malta?

 

[Dickhertz+]

I agree. It's more productive to talk about the fact that Toronto Croatia and the Portugese side have already played each other in week #1. Same can be said about ST.Catherines and the Serbs. Perhaps a recap of those games, and some game stats would be more benefical?

 

[Muserfish]

Oh sorry for posting links wont do it anymore. Well this thread is just meant for bringing more concern about this league. I think there is really a good opportunity in this one since most companies that offer it dont have a clue about it. Neither have i got a big clue about it thats why im discussing here.

And yes ... current form is always considered when compiling odds, together with form etc. Now if u need me to get into detail about tht its another story ;-)

 

[Muserfish]

And let me remind you tht in my "MALTA" some of the biggest european bookies reside ;-).

Thanks for the replies anyways. Ill come up with some recap from last matches.

 

[Muserfish]

Previous matchups this season :

Toronto Croatia v Portugal FC (24.05.2008 02.00CET) 1-0FT (0-0HT)

Odds were : 1.65 - 3.35 - 4.30



Now my point is this : Statistically by home win% draw etc the fair prices solely depending on stats is as follows :


3.53 - 2.50 - 3.16

Logically it would make sense if the bookies went sumthing like this :


2.60 - 3.05 - 2.40 : Considering 1st round (HOME) toronto croatia was as favourite as 1.65. Why do they come up with these numbers then ?

1.95 - 3.15 - 3.30 ???



Its either this is really wrong ... or else its me whos missing sumthing. In this case i would definatively bang some money on either X or 2. This is what i mean. What do you think ? What are the factors that influenced the guy who did these odds ?

 

[Muserfish]

1.95 - 3.15 - 3.30 = 1.95 for Portugal home. why are they so fav?

 

[Muserfish]

Ok maybe im pasting too much useless detail but pinnacle out now and they got -0.5 on Portugal @ 2.38 ... tht justifies my thoughts.
Bwin wrong again.

 

[PhilMoneyMargonis]

what r your plays for tonight in this league?